Tabman's Lib Dem Blog

Eve of Poll

2005-05-04T17:12:00.000+01:00

The finishing post is now in sight. I've spent the day mulling over the campaign and reading the electoral runes via email with Lib Dem colleagues around the country.

The general mood can be described as follows:

- everyone is very excited
- there is a genuine feeling that we're poised to make big gains , BUT ...
- we're all too aware of FPTP, and
- we're unsure what effect the increase in postal votes and the immigration Dog Whistle will have

All the signs are that our old friend the Dead Russian (Late Surge) is emerging from his slumber. Tracker polls from Populus and the BES show Tory fortunes diving and ours rising. The trends from the main pollsters on the BBC website show similar effects, with steadily rising support for us and drops for the Tories.

Given all this, its hard to see what Labour's strategy is. Presumably, it's "We've killed off the Tories but are worried that we could haemorrhage support to the Lib Dems so lets put the boot in there too." Too little too late, I hope.

Given all the variables, we could garner anything from 40 to 120 seats with very similar vote-shares. There are a lot of undecideds still, and if they break towards us we could be on for a spectacular night. The prevailing mood seems to be "A plague on both your houses", but it remains to be seen whether the apathy party will win.

Some last predictions.

We will win:

- Cambridge
- Wells
- Cardiff Central

We will come close and might take:

- Harborough
- Devon East
- Wiltshire North

We will lose:

- Hereford

Now, off to do my final leaflet round and look forward to the long night ahead. For anyone who's followed me thusfar, thanks for your support. I'll be back after the election with a debrief.

The Battle of Central Avenue

2005-05-03T23:01:00.000+01:00

Saturday sees all the parties on the main shopping street of West Bridgford, a suburb of Nottingham and the largest part of the Rushcliffe constituency.

There is a lot of apathy on display by the public, which I expect. But also some fire. We hand out mini-manifestos and get rid of the lot. One man, of mature years, casually dressed and balding, refuses his copy thus:

"I'm life long Labour"
"Thought about changing your mind?"
"No - last time you lot were in power we had the General Strike!"

He isn't representative. Many more ex-Labour voters come up to me to tell me they've already voted for us, in one case "After 30 years of voting Labour and a lot of soul-searching."

I chat to the UKIP candidate - he is wildly optimistic. "Expect an upset!" he enthuses. Privately I hope it favours us. I also opine internally that a good showing for UKIP has to be bad for the Tories, given Ken Clarke's views.

I gently point out to one racist old lady, complaining about our (Asian) candidate, that 40% of the staff in the health service she uses are from overseas. She departs, non-plussed.

Ken Clarke appears, slowly moving up and down the street, working the crowd like the old professional he is. He stops to shake hands with me so I take the opportunity to ask him when he'll accept the inevitable and come and join us. He deflects the question with a smile and a typical politician's non-answer. Perhaps I've given him food for thought? Regardless, my suspision is he has little to worry about.

As we enter the final week, our mood is upbeat. We have had a good response and look set to meet the targets we've set for the election. My feeling is that the Labour vote will be reduced here; it remains to be seen how much by. We are fighting hard in out target County seats andbelieve we're in with a shot.

All that remains now is to leaflet, leaflet, leaflet until polling day ...

Faithless

2005-04-27T16:09:00.000+01:00

An emotional roller-coaster of a day (thanks to Helen of the pink hair), rounded off by a trip to the National Indoor Arena in Birmingham for an evening in the company of Maxi Jazz, Sister Bliss, Rollo, friends, and about 5000 rapturous fans.

In the week where the war in Iraq has finally surfaced I reproduce below some of Maxi Jazz's lyrics to "Mass Destruction":

"Whether long range weapon or suicide bomber
Wicked mind is a weapon of mass destruction
Whether you're soar away Sun or BBC 1
Disinformation is a weapon of mass destruction
You could be a Caucasian or a poor Asian
Racism is a weapon of mass destruction
Whether inflation or globalization
Fear is a weapon of mass destruction
Whether Halliburton or Enron or anyone
Greed is a weapon of mass destruction
We need to find courage, overcome
Inaction is a weapon of mass destruction "

Not a bad creed to take into this election, really.

The "Dead Russian"

2005-04-25T15:05:00.000+01:00

A feature of most campaigns past has been the appearance in the final week or so of the "Late Surge" in Liberal support (the "late Serge" being the Russian of the title). There has been much speculation over this phenomenon, as to whether it will occur in this election at all, and if so when the signs will appear.

One school of though has it that the increase in support traditionally comes from the extra exposure the broadcasting rules give to the Lib Dems that is denied outside of elections. The argument is, that with the party already in the low 20s where its been since April 2003 (Iraq) the surge no longer applies - the public are already familiar with us. Some even argue that as we have a higher profile, our policies will come under greater scrutiny and be tested to destruction, possibly leading to a tailing off in support towards polling day.

On the other hand, we have some pollsters and pundits indicating that up to a third of the electorate is undecided. This chunk of voters could break any number of ways. If it stays at home, the Tories do porportionately better. If it goes to Labour or the Lib Dems, they don't. We hope that it breaks for us, naturally.

Today's YouGov poll in the Telegraph has us at 24% for the first time in the campaign, after a general but gentle upwards drift over the last 3 weeks. YouGov get their results together quicker, as an internet pollster, and are more indicative of current moods. If this trend is reinforced in the next few polls, our famous Russian may be starting to show himself just in time.

John has reported in his blog that the electorate seem to be more sophisticated as to their local situation these days, and higher poll-ratings should represent a good concentration of support for us. I hope my bet of 70-85 seats doesn't prove to be a bad judgement!

Blair's Fair-Votes Failure

2005-04-25T14:47:00.000+01:00

A few days ago Tony Blair made a speech appealing to voters to think carefully about their vote. He stated that he was looking for as many votes as possible, and that "[the election] could still be decided by a few hundred votes in marginal constituencies".

Think back to the run up to the 1997 General Election. Installed in Labour's manifesto was a newly-minted pledge to set up a review and referendum on the introduction of a proportional voting system for Westminster. I'm sure many Liberal Democrats took that on board when casting their Tactical Votes for Labour.

Yet Blair squandered this golden opportunity, reinforced by another thumping majority in 2001, to remove our anachronistic and capricious voting system. In so-doing he has sowed the seeds of his own downfall twice over. Firstly, by permitting the hubris that a 160-seat majority allows to take him to war in Iraq, and secondly, by perpetuating the possibility that the progressive majority in this country can be made to suffer further bouts of untrammelled Tory rule.

At this point in the campaign it looks unlikely that he will lose his majority in this election; but go it will, eventually, and if the Tories return we will all be the worse for it. Were this to happen, underneath my depression and frustration will be a smattering of Schadenfreude. as he will have been undone by the system he failed to reform.

Shame on you, Mr Blair.

Telephone Canvassing

2005-04-15T17:28:00.000+01:00

Surprisingly, my first experience of telephone canvassing hasn't been half as bad as I expected. We only contact people who aren't signed up to the TPS (unlike Labour and the Tories), so that may have had somethign to do with it. No-one put the phone down on me, and most people were polite, with the exception of the following conversation:

"Good evening, I'm calling on behalf of Jill Hope, the Liberal Democrat candidate for Harborough. Will you be supporting her in the forthcoming General Election?"

"I don't support you bloody lot usually, and definitely not now you've phoned in the middle of the football!"

"My apologies sir - thanks you for your time!"

Funnilly enough, he went down as an anti!

My overall impression gained so far is that what Labour vote there is here is soft. Often the answer on the "who will you vote for" question was "Definitely not that Blair!" There are an awful lot of undecideds, too. And as the Tories seem pretty up front about admitting it, I think many of them are genuine undecideds.

All still to play for in Harborough it seems ...

Obsessives Rule, OK!

2005-04-14T15:57:00.000+01:00

I have a pet theory that the world can be divided into two types of person: Obsessives and Generalists. Obsessives pursue one particular passion to the exclusion of all others; Generalists spread themselves over a broad range of interests and occupations.

Unfortunately for me, I fall squarely into the latter camp. I say unfortunately, because the world is run by, and therefore organised for the benefit of, Obsessives. Who is it that rises to the top in any profession? The Obsessive – for it is they who will be the workaholic who pursues one thing single-mindedly to the exclusion of everything else. The Obsessive then makes sure that obsessive behaviour is the only sort that is rewarded, which makes life very difficult for the Generalist – your behaviour is seen as dilettante, and lacking in commitment, and you are never likely to rise far.

It was whilst taking a break away from election campaigning this weekend, at the behest of my wife, that I was reminded again of my dictum. On first becoming politically active I was struck at how unusual I appeared to be – a 30-something with two small children. Most of my new colleagues were in their fifties or older, leavened with a smattering of 20-somethings. The key factor uniting them was their relative lack of other commitments.

Yet even the most obsessive Obsessive will be pressured towards Generalist behaviour when they have a young family and a home life to maintain. For a natural Generalist who doesn’t want to end up in the divorce courts, political activity will always have to be part of a “balanced portfolio”. And thus it was that I enjoyed my time away from the fray, engaging in various types of domestic activity and my first trip rowing on the river for over a month

Striking a balance is no bad thing – and it sustains me when the juggling act becomes particularly precarious. Life in this country would be a lot better for many people if the Generalists were in charge. We can’t afford to leave everything to the Obsessives, particularly not Politics.

A Grand Day Out

2005-04-09T21:52:00.000+01:00

I undertook a circular trip from Nottingham to Manchester today, travelling out and back via different routes. I have a low boredom threshold, so when a closed road took me off the A50 and onto the A34 North from Stoke, I grasped the opportunity to meander through some of England's finest countryside. It also afforded me a chance to assess the impact made by the election thusfar since Tuesday.

This route into Manchester takes you through three safe Tory seats: Congleton, Macclesfield, and Tatton (dear to John Harris' heart). The A34 is a main road and as such you would expect that it would be a natural poster site. I spied not a single poster or stakeboard of any party.

I had a quick tour round my former stamping grounds in South Manchester: Didsbury and Withington. Two very prominent Lib Dem advertising hoardings in this target seat. They feature Charles Kennedy prominently, and one of the party's ten promises. Very clearly an election poster.

My trip home took me out via East Manchester, through the Gorton constituency, where the Lib Dems now have a strong council presence. More Lib Dem advertising hoardings. However I have seen no stakeboards or window posters of any party yet. And nor did I driving through Hazel Grove, which I recalled as having been a sea of yellow diamonds in 1997, although I finally saw a Tory hoarding. Eventually.

The poster is black text on a white background, and does not immediately strike you as being an election poster. Perhaps this is intentional. This particular example carried the "It's not racist to want limits to immigration." tagline, with the subtext "Are you thinking what we're thinking?" At a reasonable speed you don't have time to pick this message up (which, to be honest, is a good thing - I find this campaign disturbing). I hope they're wasting their money.

The sun finally broke through as I took myself back via Hope (a portent?). Dropping off the Penines into Chesterfield I finally saw two stakeboards, both for Paul Holmes (the Lib Dem MP for the town).

It looks like the nation is yet to wake up to the election.

The Campaign Trail - Local Observations 1

2005-04-08T22:20:00.000+01:00

So Liz has given her consent and the starting gun has been fired. The worst kept political secret has come to pass, as was widely expected.

Now the phoney war has given way to the real thing, it has created a galvanising effect. There is a new urgency in everything. Emails fly back and forth; phone messages are left. Printers, sorters, deliverers, local press, poster sites ... the minutae of "on the ground" campaigning is energising us all. We are at that brief period where everything seems possible.

Driving round my constituency (the safe seat of Ken Clarke) today I saw little evidence of a looming election. One small, solitary Labour poster in a window. Nothing yet outside Ken Clarke's house. A large poster board outside our PPC's house, which is on the opposite side of the road to Ken's. It will be interesting to see how the poster war plays out.

Leafletting to be done over the weekend. Only three and a half weeks to go ... it all promises to be very exciting.

Postal Voting - Fraud Now Proven in Birmingham

2005-04-04T15:50:00.000+01:00

Following on from my earlier article about the issues surrounding Postal Voting when it's conducted ligitimately, I notice that today the three Labour councillors accused of Fraud in Birmingham have been found guilty. It will be interesting to see how this is played out in the local Birmingham press, where we are challenging Labour in several seats including Hodge Hill and Yardley. It is believed that the fraud was perpetrated because of concerns of the effect of Labour's actions over Iraq on last year's ballot.

Labour argues that the use of postal voting increases voter turnout. A better way to do this would be to introduce a system of proportional voting. Then everyone's vote would count and frauds such as this would have little to no impact.

Press Viewpoints

2005-04-04T15:35:00.000+01:00

Millwall fans are alleged to sing "No-one likes us, we don't care." It was with this sentiment in mind that I read the following quote in the Sun today:

"We discount the Lib Dems from the start, because we believe they are unprincipled and unworthy of your vote. On taxes, at least, they are honest — they will put them up. But on every other issue, they are two-faced."

This was our only mention in an article of several hundred words! Oh well, someone once said "All publicity is good publicity" ...

Rupert's Red-Top aside, 3 of the 4 qualities are giving us some positive publicity today as John has highlighted on the main site. The Indy and Guardian pieces are mainly about Charles Kennedy and his views. The last one, in the Times, is an interesting look at which outcomes of this election might benefit our party most in the long run.

Still - the main thing is that we're in the press again, and generally favourably, after a few days dominated by the Other Two. I hope this is a foretaste of what will come.

646 By-Elections

2005-04-01T12:49:00.000+01:00

As some of you will know I am a regular contributor to www.politicalbetting.com. This is a site aimed primarily at discussing politics with a view to making a profit from the bookies. It doesn't go in for policy debate per se, but instead looks at the effect of policy (and other factors) on electoral outcomes.

Over the last few months two key themes have emerged. One is that the current balance between the parties in the opinion polls (Labour 38-40%, Tories 32-4% , Lib Dems 19-21%) makes this election very difficult to predict; under FPTP small changes tend to have big impacts when the numbers are that close. The other is that there is a much more fragmented mood in the country than in previous years. Local factors, both in terms of issues and electoral dynamics in particular constituencies, will play a much bigger part than at previous elections.

With the greater prominence of such local factors sources of good information are going to be highly significant. www.sonowwhodowevotefor.net is a prime example of how improved communication, information and a recognition of the local situation will be used to take local action within the framework of an over-arching national aim. Yet there is still a risk that with a plethora of viewpoints (anti-Blair, anti-Tory, electoral reform, anti-War, pro-environment) seeking to influence events in this way, the net effect could amount to very little. We are always at the mercy of FPTP!

With Labour still around 5% ahead most traditional pundits are predicting another Labour victory of 80-100 seats. Despite this many of the openly-declared candidates on PB.com, especially the Tories, are saying "the polls are wrong, we don't get that feeling from what we hear on the doorstep". Partly that can be dismissed as traditional candidate over-optimism. But my own highly anecdotal experience from canvassing, even allowing for the politeness of those questioned (ie they say "Don't know" rather than "No"), gives me a feeling of a mood of genuine undecidedness.

Some have given the election little thought because they are not that bothered, but some are still making up their mind. This can be characterised as "We don't trust Labour anymore, and still don't like the Tories; we're not sure about the Lib Dems; we support some of the aims of smaller parties but are they just for single issues?; in the end, we might stay at home."

If as expected Tony Blair announces the election on Monday for May 5th, the "ground war" in the constituencies will be as key to this election as the "air war" fought nationally. There is a lot to play for, and there will be many more surprises being announced by Returning Officers in the small hours of May 6th than there were four years ago. This election will be many things, but dull isn't one of them.

England's Green & Pleasant Land

2005-03-28T15:51:00.000+01:00

One of the unexpected pleasures of electioneering in a semi-rural constituency has been the opportunity to explore some of the smaller, more off-the-beaten-track communities. Leafletting on an unseasonably warm Spring day the weekend before last, I was able to evade the boredom by drinking in the architectural idiosyncracies offered on view. A small Norman church glimpsed between two buildings; a genuine working farm in all its anarchic glory, sitting almost uncomfortably amongst the ersatz rurality of the converted farm buildings surrounding it.

Another thing that struck me whilst threading my way up the immaculately manicured gardens, past the large German cars on the drives, was that I was in the presence of considerable affluence. Considering my own circumstances are significantly better than average, and that I am miles away from being able to afford such a lifestyle, what do such people do for a living?

Who's hearing the Dog Whistle?

2005-03-22T10:37:00.000Z

No doubt everyone will have heard Michael Howard's latest pronouncements on Gypsies and Travellers, which join a long list of Crosby-inspired "common sense" issues of concern to "ordinary, hard-working peepill [tm]" such as Asylum and Immigration.

I am sure I'm not the only person of liberal (small - l) persuasion who's profoundly disturbed by the tone of the Tory election campaign thusfar. There's no doubt its clever, and there's no doubt its pushing the buttons of both the core Tory vote and also the conservative (small-c) voters who deserted the Tories to bring New Labour to power in 1997. Michael Howard needs both groups to be on side and motivated to turn out, for him to have a sniff of office in 2005.

The key feature of this campaign is that there is always a subtle movement from the specific ("these individual travellers have been causing a nuisance in this specific location") to the general ("all travellers are a nuisance"). The Tories argue that they are only raising legitimate concerns, but the right-wing press picks up and generalises these messages and extends them to all members of certain groups, thereby stoking the fires of intolerance. That is a highly dangerous tiger to ride for the well-being and cohesiveness of our society.

Michael Howard and Linton Crosby are shrewd political operators who know exactly how certain sections of the press will spin their message. Therefore, they need to make it clear in no uncertain terms that the specifics do not apply to the general. I am yet to see evidence that they are doing this, and therefore they can be deemed to be complicit in this process.

Perhaps all will not go their way, however. It is my fervant hope that all voters of a liberal/progressive persuasion are also picking up this shrill, nearly inaudible "whistle", and will as a consequence be more motivated to ensure that both the New Labour government that panders to this way of thinking and its potential Tory replacement have their ambitions curbed at the ballot box in May.

Given his own family history, I don't know how Michael Howard sleeps at night ...

Is 2005 the year of the breakthrough?

2005-03-19T16:50:00.000Z

Their history was long and illustrious, filled with acheivement. But in the years since they had fallen on hard times, always flattering to deceive and never quite delivering when it mattered. Their supporters continued more in hope than in expectation, a small but committed band from unfashionable parts. There were numerous false dawns, always followed by disappointment and recrimination. It was feared they were doomed for ever to failure.

Yet in 2003 they showed signs of a strong recovery, with some good performances - the old spark was back. People started talking about them as serious contenders again. Behind the scenes things were stirring, progress was being made as a new professionalism took hold.

Then in 2005 it all came right. A steeliness backed up by discipline and commitment forged in the years of adversity showed itself in defeats of both the Red Rose and the Blues. Both were bigger, better funded, and favourite to win, but both stuttered and came unstuck in the face of the onslaught. The unfancied outsiders finally, after many years of waiting, claimed the ultimate prize.

So, a big congratulations to the Welsh Rugby Union Team for their remarkable acheivement in winning a first Grand Slam for 27 years.

Let's hope this story has its parallels in the political sphere come May 5th.

First Past the Postal Vote

2005-03-18T19:08:00.000Z

Last night I attended a meeting of my constituency party’s election committee. This was a bit of a marathon session, as the County elections are looming and we are also preparing for a May 5th General Election in the absence of any counter-indications. There is much still to be done.

Its only when you become immersed in the minutae of practical electioneering that some of the more subtle inequities of our electoral system become apparent. Two of these manifest themselves in the interlinked forms of the Freepost Election Address and the Postal Vote.

For explanation, in the unlikely case that the reader is not a fully paid-up political anorak, the Freepost is a free one-off letter or leaflet delivery to all electors or households, made on each party’s behalf by the Post Office during a General Election campaign. The choice between a letter to each elector or a leaflet to each household depends mainly upon the finances of the party, as the leaflet or letter has to be paid for; it is only its delivery that is free. The printing costs of even a simple leaflet can be a four-figure sum and may be out of the reach of a smaller party.

A lack of finances is one issue, but there are further practical problems. If the Government decides to call a snap election, then four weeks is a very short time to write, edit, send to the printers, print, and deliver your leaflet to the Post Office for distribution. In a large-ish mixed sub-urban and rural constituency such as mine, with a small activist base, the Freepost is often the only means by which many voters will receive a communication from their local party. Consequently it is a very important part of any constituency-wide campaign, and any delay may mean there is not enough time to get it delivered before polling day. Funnily enough this risk can be avoided by the party that knows when it is calling the election ...

The increased popularity of postal voting following 2003’s all-postal elections in some areas creates a further problem. Indeed it is estimated that in some constituencies postal votes may account for 40% of the turnout. Yet the Post Office promise only to undertake the Freepost delivery at some point during the election campaign, which is typically four weeks long. But, as postal votes have to be returned around ten days before polling day there is a strong possibility that the Freepost won’t have been received by postal voters before they cast their vote. This completely negates the point of having the Freepost in the first place – the desire to try and level the playing-field between rich and poor parties.

Notwithstanding all the above, the final point about postal voting is that it ossifies postal voters’ attitudes at a point well before the campaign ends. If “a week is a long time in politics”, then ten days is an eternity. Plenty of things could happen in the campaign between the close of postal voting and polling day itself to affect the way someone might vote.

From a Liberal Democrat point of view, the evidence of the past two or three decades is that this “freezing” of the campaign at a point well before its end would tend to work against us in more ways than those already discussed. Typically we put on 3-5% in the opinion polls over the election period, as the rules about equitable media coverage give us the increased exposure usually granted only at by-elections or conference time. Often, we need the whole campaign not just to get across our national message but also to hit home hard in voters’ minds the tactical situation in their constituency.

By voting early, voters are more likely to vote by reflex. When asked who they support unprompted by party name, opinion poll evidence suggests an overstatement of the two main parties (people “forget” that there are other options to Conservative or Labour if not explicitly told them) compared to actual election results. Voting Liberal Democrat is often a more considered action, as the campaign and tactical messages need time to sink in. To illustrate how important this might prove to be in the upcoming election, I have heard anecdotally that the total postal votes received by Labour were bigger than their majorities in each of the recent Hartlepool and Birmingham Hodge Hill by-elections. In other words, it seems the Liberal Democrats “won” the final days of the campaign measured by votes at the polling booth, but Labour “won” the postal vote by a bigger margin, thus gaining overall victory. The “band-waggon” effect was successfully negated.

Of course all this is before we even begin to consider the opportunities for fraud and personation using postal votes, highlighted by the case currently underway in Birmingham ….

No wonder New Labour encourage it.

Emerging from the Primordial Soup ... into the Blogosphere

2005-03-17T15:19:00.000Z

Thank you to John for inviting me to write this blog, and to you for reading it. I'm a recently joined party member and activist in the East Midlands, trying to juggle an interest in politics with the demands of a young family and career. The constituency where I live is the safe seat of a Conservative ex-Minister, and I'm also campaigning in a nearby Liberal Democrat target from the Conservatives, Harborough.

From a personal perspective this is the most interesting election I've ever been involved. During the 1980s and 1990s I watched the Conservatives win election after election with a mounting sense of dispair. I shared the general joy of their ejection in 1997, and was not too dismayed in 2001 when Labour won a second term, given the 18 years of Tory rule preceding it were still a raw memory.

2005, though, is different. And very interesting from a partisan perspective. Electoral geography and FPTP can throw up a huge number of different outcomes based on local factors and small changes in vote percentage and distribution. The election is a lot more open than is generally perceived by the public. The government has lost a lot of its shine, but the main opposition is not yet fully trusted or liked. And that makes it exciting for the activist, because there's a feeling that there's everything to play for. Indeed, it was that feeling that encouraged me to become an activist for the first time in my life, just before Christmas.

Over the next few weeks I will share some of my thoughts and feelings about the nature of the campaign, both locally and nationally. I hope they are of some interest and prove informative.