Eve of Poll

The finishing post is now in sight. I've spent the day mulling over the campaign and reading the electoral runes via email with Lib Dem colleagues around the country.

The general mood can be described as follows:

- everyone is very excited
- there is a genuine feeling that we're poised to make big gains , BUT ...
- we're all too aware of FPTP, and
- we're unsure what effect the increase in postal votes and the immigration Dog Whistle will have

All the signs are that our old friend the Dead Russian (Late Surge) is emerging from his slumber. Tracker polls from Populus and the BES show Tory fortunes diving and ours rising. The trends from the main pollsters on the BBC website show similar effects, with steadily rising support for us and drops for the Tories.

Given all this, its hard to see what Labour's strategy is. Presumably, it's "We've killed off the Tories but are worried that we could haemorrhage support to the Lib Dems so lets put the boot in there too." Too little too late, I hope.

Given all the variables, we could garner anything from 40 to 120 seats with very similar vote-shares. There are a lot of undecideds still, and if they break towards us we could be on for a spectacular night. The prevailing mood seems to be "A plague on both your houses", but it remains to be seen whether the apathy party will win.

Some last predictions.

We will win:

- Cambridge
- Wells
- Cardiff Central

We will come close and might take:

- Harborough
- Devon East
- Wiltshire North

We will lose:

- Hereford


Now, off to do my final leaflet round and look forward to the long night ahead. For anyone who's followed me thusfar, thanks for your support. I'll be back after the election with a debrief.

The Battle of Central Avenue

Saturday sees all the parties on the main shopping street of West Bridgford, a suburb of Nottingham and the largest part of the Rushcliffe constituency.

There is a lot of apathy on display by the public, which I expect. But also some fire. We hand out mini-manifestos and get rid of the lot. One man, of mature years, casually dressed and balding, refuses his copy thus:

"I'm life long Labour"
"Thought about changing your mind?"
"No - last time you lot were in power we had the General Strike!"

He isn't representative. Many more ex-Labour voters come up to me to tell me they've already voted for us, in one case "After 30 years of voting Labour and a lot of soul-searching."

I chat to the UKIP candidate - he is wildly optimistic. "Expect an upset!" he enthuses. Privately I hope it favours us. I also opine internally that a good showing for UKIP has to be bad for the Tories, given Ken Clarke's views.

I gently point out to one racist old lady, complaining about our (Asian) candidate, that 40% of the staff in the health service she uses are from overseas. She departs, non-plussed.

Ken Clarke appears, slowly moving up and down the street, working the crowd like the old professional he is. He stops to shake hands with me so I take the opportunity to ask him when he'll accept the inevitable and come and join us. He deflects the question with a smile and a typical politician's non-answer. Perhaps I've given him food for thought? Regardless, my suspision is he has little to worry about.

As we enter the final week, our mood is upbeat. We have had a good response and look set to meet the targets we've set for the election. My feeling is that the Labour vote will be reduced here; it remains to be seen how much by. We are fighting hard in out target County seats andbelieve we're in with a shot.

All that remains now is to leaflet, leaflet, leaflet until polling day ...