Faithless

An emotional roller-coaster of a day (thanks to Helen of the pink hair), rounded off by a trip to the National Indoor Arena in Birmingham for an evening in the company of Maxi Jazz, Sister Bliss, Rollo, friends, and about 5000 rapturous fans.

In the week where the war in Iraq has finally surfaced I reproduce below some of Maxi Jazz's lyrics to "Mass Destruction":

"Whether long range weapon or suicide bomber
Wicked mind is a weapon of mass destruction
Whether you're soar away Sun or BBC 1
Disinformation is a weapon of mass destruction
You could be a Caucasian or a poor Asian
Racism is a weapon of mass destruction
Whether inflation or globalization
Fear is a weapon of mass destruction
Whether Halliburton or Enron or anyone
Greed is a weapon of mass destruction
We need to find courage, overcome
Inaction is a weapon of mass destruction "

Not a bad creed to take into this election, really.

The "Dead Russian"

A feature of most campaigns past has been the appearance in the final week or so of the "Late Surge" in Liberal support (the "late Serge" being the Russian of the title). There has been much speculation over this phenomenon, as to whether it will occur in this election at all, and if so when the signs will appear.

One school of though has it that the increase in support traditionally comes from the extra exposure the broadcasting rules give to the Lib Dems that is denied outside of elections. The argument is, that with the party already in the low 20s where its been since April 2003 (Iraq) the surge no longer applies - the public are already familiar with us. Some even argue that as we have a higher profile, our policies will come under greater scrutiny and be tested to destruction, possibly leading to a tailing off in support towards polling day.

On the other hand, we have some pollsters and pundits indicating that up to a third of the electorate is undecided. This chunk of voters could break any number of ways. If it stays at home, the Tories do porportionately better. If it goes to Labour or the Lib Dems, they don't. We hope that it breaks for us, naturally.

Today's YouGov poll in the Telegraph has us at 24% for the first time in the campaign, after a general but gentle upwards drift over the last 3 weeks. YouGov get their results together quicker, as an internet pollster, and are more indicative of current moods. If this trend is reinforced in the next few polls, our famous Russian may be starting to show himself just in time.

John has reported in his blog that the electorate seem to be more sophisticated as to their local situation these days, and higher poll-ratings should represent a good concentration of support for us. I hope my bet of 70-85 seats doesn't prove to be a bad judgement!

Blair's Fair-Votes Failure

A few days ago Tony Blair made a speech appealing to voters to think carefully about their vote. He stated that he was looking for as many votes as possible, and that "[the election] could still be decided by a few hundred votes in marginal constituencies".

Think back to the run up to the 1997 General Election. Installed in Labour's manifesto was a newly-minted pledge to set up a review and referendum on the introduction of a proportional voting system for Westminster. I'm sure many Liberal Democrats took that on board when casting their Tactical Votes for Labour.

Yet Blair squandered this golden opportunity, reinforced by another thumping majority in 2001, to remove our anachronistic and capricious voting system. In so-doing he has sowed the seeds of his own downfall twice over. Firstly, by permitting the hubris that a 160-seat majority allows to take him to war in Iraq, and secondly, by perpetuating the possibility that the progressive majority in this country can be made to suffer further bouts of untrammelled Tory rule.

At this point in the campaign it looks unlikely that he will lose his majority in this election; but go it will, eventually, and if the Tories return we will all be the worse for it. Were this to happen, underneath my depression and frustration will be a smattering of Schadenfreude. as he will have been undone by the system he failed to reform.

Shame on you, Mr Blair.

Telephone Canvassing

Surprisingly, my first experience of telephone canvassing hasn't been half as bad as I expected. We only contact people who aren't signed up to the TPS (unlike Labour and the Tories), so that may have had somethign to do with it. No-one put the phone down on me, and most people were polite, with the exception of the following conversation:

"Good evening, I'm calling on behalf of Jill Hope, the Liberal Democrat candidate for Harborough. Will you be supporting her in the forthcoming General Election?"

"I don't support you bloody lot usually, and definitely not now you've phoned in the middle of the football!"

"My apologies sir - thanks you for your time!"

Funnilly enough, he went down as an anti!

My overall impression gained so far is that what Labour vote there is here is soft. Often the answer on the "who will you vote for" question was "Definitely not that Blair!" There are an awful lot of undecideds, too. And as the Tories seem pretty up front about admitting it, I think many of them are genuine undecideds.

All still to play for in Harborough it seems ...

Obsessives Rule, OK!

I have a pet theory that the world can be divided into two types of person: Obsessives and Generalists. Obsessives pursue one particular passion to the exclusion of all others; Generalists spread themselves over a broad range of interests and occupations.

Unfortunately for me, I fall squarely into the latter camp. I say unfortunately, because the world is run by, and therefore organised for the benefit of, Obsessives. Who is it that rises to the top in any profession? The Obsessive – for it is they who will be the workaholic who pursues one thing single-mindedly to the exclusion of everything else. The Obsessive then makes sure that obsessive behaviour is the only sort that is rewarded, which makes life very difficult for the Generalist – your behaviour is seen as dilettante, and lacking in commitment, and you are never likely to rise far.

It was whilst taking a break away from election campaigning this weekend, at the behest of my wife, that I was reminded again of my dictum. On first becoming politically active I was struck at how unusual I appeared to be – a 30-something with two small children. Most of my new colleagues were in their fifties or older, leavened with a smattering of 20-somethings. The key factor uniting them was their relative lack of other commitments.

Yet even the most obsessive Obsessive will be pressured towards Generalist behaviour when they have a young family and a home life to maintain. For a natural Generalist who doesn’t want to end up in the divorce courts, political activity will always have to be part of a “balanced portfolio”. And thus it was that I enjoyed my time away from the fray, engaging in various types of domestic activity and my first trip rowing on the river for over a month

Striking a balance is no bad thing – and it sustains me when the juggling act becomes particularly precarious. Life in this country would be a lot better for many people if the Generalists were in charge. We can’t afford to leave everything to the Obsessives, particularly not Politics.

A Grand Day Out

I undertook a circular trip from Nottingham to Manchester today, travelling out and back via different routes. I have a low boredom threshold, so when a closed road took me off the A50 and onto the A34 North from Stoke, I grasped the opportunity to meander through some of England's finest countryside. It also afforded me a chance to assess the impact made by the election thusfar since Tuesday.

This route into Manchester takes you through three safe Tory seats: Congleton, Macclesfield, and Tatton (dear to John Harris' heart). The A34 is a main road and as such you would expect that it would be a natural poster site. I spied not a single poster or stakeboard of any party.

I had a quick tour round my former stamping grounds in South Manchester: Didsbury and Withington. Two very prominent Lib Dem advertising hoardings in this target seat. They feature Charles Kennedy prominently, and one of the party's ten promises. Very clearly an election poster.

My trip home took me out via East Manchester, through the Gorton constituency, where the Lib Dems now have a strong council presence. More Lib Dem advertising hoardings. However I have seen no stakeboards or window posters of any party yet. And nor did I driving through Hazel Grove, which I recalled as having been a sea of yellow diamonds in 1997, although I finally saw a Tory hoarding. Eventually.

The poster is black text on a white background, and does not immediately strike you as being an election poster. Perhaps this is intentional. This particular example carried the "It's not racist to want limits to immigration." tagline, with the subtext "Are you thinking what we're thinking?" At a reasonable speed you don't have time to pick this message up (which, to be honest, is a good thing - I find this campaign disturbing). I hope they're wasting their money.

The sun finally broke through as I took myself back via Hope (a portent?). Dropping off the Penines into Chesterfield I finally saw two stakeboards, both for Paul Holmes (the Lib Dem MP for the town).

It looks like the nation is yet to wake up to the election.

The Campaign Trail - Local Observations 1

So Liz has given her consent and the starting gun has been fired. The worst kept political secret has come to pass, as was widely expected.

Now the phoney war has given way to the real thing, it has created a galvanising effect. There is a new urgency in everything. Emails fly back and forth; phone messages are left. Printers, sorters, deliverers, local press, poster sites ... the minutae of "on the ground" campaigning is energising us all. We are at that brief period where everything seems possible.

Driving round my constituency (the safe seat of Ken Clarke) today I saw little evidence of a looming election. One small, solitary Labour poster in a window. Nothing yet outside Ken Clarke's house. A large poster board outside our PPC's house, which is on the opposite side of the road to Ken's. It will be interesting to see how the poster war plays out.

Leafletting to be done over the weekend. Only three and a half weeks to go ... it all promises to be very exciting.

Postal Voting - Fraud Now Proven in Birmingham

Following on from my earlier article about the issues surrounding Postal Voting when it's conducted ligitimately, I notice that today the three Labour councillors accused of Fraud in Birmingham have been found guilty. It will be interesting to see how this is played out in the local Birmingham press, where we are challenging Labour in several seats including Hodge Hill and Yardley. It is believed that the fraud was perpetrated because of concerns of the effect of Labour's actions over Iraq on last year's ballot.

Labour argues that the use of postal voting increases voter turnout. A better way to do this would be to introduce a system of proportional voting. Then everyone's vote would count and frauds such as this would have little to no impact.

Press Viewpoints

Millwall fans are alleged to sing "No-one likes us, we don't care." It was with this sentiment in mind that I read the following quote in the Sun today:

"We discount the Lib Dems from the start, because we believe they are unprincipled and unworthy of your vote. On taxes, at least, they are honest — they will put them up. But on every other issue, they are two-faced."

This was our only mention in an article of several hundred words! Oh well, someone once said "All publicity is good publicity" ...

Rupert's Red-Top aside, 3 of the 4 qualities are giving us some positive publicity today as John has highlighted on the main site. The Indy and Guardian pieces are mainly about Charles Kennedy and his views. The last one, in the Times, is an interesting look at which outcomes of this election might benefit our party most in the long run.

Still - the main thing is that we're in the press again, and generally favourably, after a few days dominated by the Other Two. I hope this is a foretaste of what will come.

646 By-Elections

As some of you will know I am a regular contributor to www.politicalbetting.com. This is a site aimed primarily at discussing politics with a view to making a profit from the bookies. It doesn't go in for policy debate per se, but instead looks at the effect of policy (and other factors) on electoral outcomes.

Over the last few months two key themes have emerged. One is that the current balance between the parties in the opinion polls (Labour 38-40%, Tories 32-4% , Lib Dems 19-21%) makes this election very difficult to predict; under FPTP small changes tend to have big impacts when the numbers are that close. The other is that there is a much more fragmented mood in the country than in previous years. Local factors, both in terms of issues and electoral dynamics in particular constituencies, will play a much bigger part than at previous elections.

With the greater prominence of such local factors sources of good information are going to be highly significant. www.sonowwhodowevotefor.net is a prime example of how improved communication, information and a recognition of the local situation will be used to take local action within the framework of an over-arching national aim. Yet there is still a risk that with a plethora of viewpoints (anti-Blair, anti-Tory, electoral reform, anti-War, pro-environment) seeking to influence events in this way, the net effect could amount to very little. We are always at the mercy of FPTP!

With Labour still around 5% ahead most traditional pundits are predicting another Labour victory of 80-100 seats. Despite this many of the openly-declared candidates on PB.com, especially the Tories, are saying "the polls are wrong, we don't get that feeling from what we hear on the doorstep". Partly that can be dismissed as traditional candidate over-optimism. But my own highly anecdotal experience from canvassing, even allowing for the politeness of those questioned (ie they say "Don't know" rather than "No"), gives me a feeling of a mood of genuine undecidedness.

Some have given the election little thought because they are not that bothered, but some are still making up their mind. This can be characterised as "We don't trust Labour anymore, and still don't like the Tories; we're not sure about the Lib Dems; we support some of the aims of smaller parties but are they just for single issues?; in the end, we might stay at home."

If as expected Tony Blair announces the election on Monday for May 5th, the "ground war" in the constituencies will be as key to this election as the "air war" fought nationally. There is a lot to play for, and there will be many more surprises being announced by Returning Officers in the small hours of May 6th than there were four years ago. This election will be many things, but dull isn't one of them.