The "Dead Russian"

A feature of most campaigns past has been the appearance in the final week or so of the "Late Surge" in Liberal support (the "late Serge" being the Russian of the title). There has been much speculation over this phenomenon, as to whether it will occur in this election at all, and if so when the signs will appear.

One school of though has it that the increase in support traditionally comes from the extra exposure the broadcasting rules give to the Lib Dems that is denied outside of elections. The argument is, that with the party already in the low 20s where its been since April 2003 (Iraq) the surge no longer applies - the public are already familiar with us. Some even argue that as we have a higher profile, our policies will come under greater scrutiny and be tested to destruction, possibly leading to a tailing off in support towards polling day.

On the other hand, we have some pollsters and pundits indicating that up to a third of the electorate is undecided. This chunk of voters could break any number of ways. If it stays at home, the Tories do porportionately better. If it goes to Labour or the Lib Dems, they don't. We hope that it breaks for us, naturally.

Today's YouGov poll in the Telegraph has us at 24% for the first time in the campaign, after a general but gentle upwards drift over the last 3 weeks. YouGov get their results together quicker, as an internet pollster, and are more indicative of current moods. If this trend is reinforced in the next few polls, our famous Russian may be starting to show himself just in time.

John has reported in his blog that the electorate seem to be more sophisticated as to their local situation these days, and higher poll-ratings should represent a good concentration of support for us. I hope my bet of 70-85 seats doesn't prove to be a bad judgement!