Eve of Poll
The general mood can be described as follows:
- everyone is very excited
- there is a genuine feeling that we're poised to make big gains , BUT ...
- we're all too aware of FPTP, and
- we're unsure what effect the increase in postal votes and the immigration Dog Whistle will have
All the signs are that our old friend the Dead Russian (Late Surge) is emerging from his slumber. Tracker polls from Populus and the BES show Tory fortunes diving and ours rising. The trends from the main pollsters on the BBC website show similar effects, with steadily rising support for us and drops for the Tories.
Given all this, its hard to see what Labour's strategy is. Presumably, it's "We've killed off the Tories but are worried that we could haemorrhage support to the Lib Dems so lets put the boot in there too." Too little too late, I hope.
Given all the variables, we could garner anything from 40 to 120 seats with very similar vote-shares. There are a lot of undecideds still, and if they break towards us we could be on for a spectacular night. The prevailing mood seems to be "A plague on both your houses", but it remains to be seen whether the apathy party will win.
Some last predictions.
We will win:
- Cardiff Central
We will come close and might take:
- Devon East
- Wiltshire North
We will lose:
Now, off to do my final leaflet round and look forward to the long night ahead. For anyone who's followed me thusfar, thanks for your support. I'll be back after the election with a debrief.